The more I think about it the more I’m beginning to suspect that Stephane Dion’s week in seclusion was spent plotting. I know its hard to believe, virtually everything we’ve seen of Dion suggests he’s far from being a savvy politician.
Yes, he did win the Liberal leadership. That, however, was more due to the fact that Rae and Ignatieff supporters were so entrenched in supporting their own candidate that a compromise was impossible. (Something I fully expect to happen again if the two decide to duke it out next year.) Still, the constant stream of leaks from within the party during the the lead up to the election was clear evidence that many within the party didn’t support Dion. That the leaks turned into a torrent of incriminations once the ballots were counted is hardly surprising.
How, then, can Dion be described as a tactician? First, Dion has silenced the growing din of people calling for his head by resigning. However, unlike other party leaders who have turned the leadership over to an interim leader after resigning, Stephane has chosen to lead the party until the leadership convention sometime in May of 2009.
By resigned, he’s effectively deflected the calls for him to leave. By saying he’ll lead the party until the convention he’s managed to hold on to the levers of power for a few more months. Granted, the people calling for his head just a few days ago are unlikely to be dissuaded. The Globe and Mail hinted at this:
Some Liberals argued that Mr. Dion will be a lame-duck interim leader with little real power to control the party’s finances or his MPs. And even before he made it official, most in his party had moved on to the next race.
Yesterday I discussed how Dion had issued a cursory mea culpa instead piling the lion’s share of blame on the Conservative’s advertising program for his loss. Stephane specifically said he planned to stay on to ensure the next Liberal Party leader doesn’t face the same challenge by rebuilding the Liberal’s finances.
That’s really what got me thinking.
Its no secret that the changes to contribution rules put in place by Jean Cretien significantly hampered the Liberal’s fundraising ability. Having become accustomed to significant donations from large corporate sponsors the Liberal’s have not been able to mobilize their grassroots organization. In 2008 Q2 alone the Conservative Party of Canada raised $3.52 million compared with the Liberal’s who raised just shy of $980,000.
Increasing Liberal Party donations more than three and a half times is a herculean task. Doing it in the six or seven months Dion ostensibly has left is virtually impossible.
So how does Dion plan on making sure the next leader has a strong foundation to run on?
The answer might come from one of Dion’s pre-resignation phone calls. The Globe and Mail reported:
Over the weekend, Mr. Dion told one defeated candidate to “stay strong and trim and be ready,” surmising that the budget that the Harper Conservatives deliver in February “is going to be a mess.” The Harper Tories were held to a minority government last Tuesday and a budget vote is a confidence matter that could bring down the government.
Yesterday I said Stephane was delusional for believing his performance during the election was anything but a failure. If he thinks he can convince his caucus to follow him into another disastrous election, less than four months after losing 20 seats, he’s certifiable.
Look for the Liberal’s to push Dion under the bus sometime between now and the budget.
- Rafael.
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